Greg Mills: The 3200 delegates at the 2012 Liberal biennial convention was an impressive turnout for a third-place party (more than the Conservative and NDP conventions), and even more so considering it was not even a leadership convention.
But that doesn’t stop people from talking about the party’s leadership potentials. The media has been increasingly buzzing over the possibility that current Interim-Leader Bob Rae will drop the first word from his title and seek the job full time - a trend that wasn’t helped by Rae’s own lack of comment on his commitment one way or the other. I suspect his strong performance in the last parliamentary session is cause for consideration as well. Since becoming the effective leader of the opposition, he’s been polling well among Canadians and is broadly considered a significant force, which has to make him wonder how far he can go.
But anyway, rumors abounded that other senior Liberal MPs have started to explore the possibility, including David McGuinty, Marc Garneau, and Dominic LeBlanc. And after a barn burning speech the first night of the convention, it would be absurd if the possibility of making the switch to federal politics isn’t somewhere in Premier Dalton McGuinty’s mind.
The Liberals still have a fair amount of time ahead before their leadership race will begin in earnest. Who decides to run, and who eventually wins, will almost certainly decide the future of the party during this fragile time for them.
Will Murray: While some tried to push the notion of Dalton McGuinty moving over to federal politics, I just don’t see it happening. First, he’s currently running a minority government in Ontario. Tough to see a Premier leaving his party in the lurch like that. Second, he says he’s not interested, and I tend to believe him. Third, no Premier has ever gone on to become Prime Minister. Fourth, Mr. McGuinty has been in politics for 21 years, 14 of them as leader of the Liberals. While 56 isn’t too old to be federal leader right now, you have to wonder whether Mr. McGuinty is interested in another long-term rebuild. He knows what it’s like to do it in Ontario, and while his knowledge and experience could be invaluable, he may not want to be the one to be front and centre making that commitment. Finally, while I don’t suggest to know the McGuinty family, we’ve had one brother (Dalton) express no interest in the job, and another (David) seriously considering a run. In my view, a McGuinty runs, but it won’t be Dalton.
GM: I think ultimately, I must agree with you, Will.
What the Liberal Party needs, perhaps more than anything else, is a leader who can stay around for at least one more election than 2015. This habit of taking leaders who don’t win out back and shooting them doesn’t help them build long term success - it damages consistency and pushes the party from center-right to center-left and back again rapidly. The end result is that nobody knows what the party stands for.
Jack Layton technically ‘lost’ repeatedly before he became the opposition leader. The success the NDP currently enjoys is in large part thanks to his ability to remain consistent and produce a clear message over the long term.
If there is one argument against a Rae leadership, it is that one: Even if he doubled, or tripled, the Liberal seat count and became the leader of the opposition, he is less likely to be able to stay in politics long enough to try for the summit.
WM: Ironically, they need to approach things the way Dalton did… in 1997.
JVW: The first thing the Liberals need to deal with is the Rae question. I think, despite the possible flip-flop, that keeping their options open with respect to his candidacy is very smart. Firstly, it means they can field test him. They can find out what Canadians think of him (cautiously optimistic, according to Frank Graves), and how their opponents will come after him (sideways, very predictably, and featuring the music of Daft Punk). While the NDP needs a new, permanent public face as soon as possible, the Liberals have the Parliamentarian of the Year as the consensus interim leader. This consensus may collapse if he starts to look too hungry for the permanent post, but for now, they’re in a good spot to bide their time.
Second, even if Rae were entirely serious about not running for leader, the Liberals have no guarantee that a consensus candidate – or even a particularly good candidate – will emerge. I agree that the aim here has to be a leader who can stick with (and maintain the confidence of) the party for several elections to come, but while the argument that Rae isn’t going to be able to fight another two or three elections is likely accurate, it assumes the emergence of somebody who is young enough, dedicated enough, skilled enough, and popular enough to be able to fight these elections in his stead. It may be that biding their time until after 2015 is a risk they’ll have to take.
GM: I see three different possible answers to the Rae question to mention:
First, Bob Rae is absolutely not planning on running to be the permanent leader and by being coy about it, he keeps the media attention focused on him and the party, raises both his own profile but also that of the brand and the rebuilding work that’s taken place, and when he turns command over to someone else the party has already been largely rebuilt and optimized, and considered a serious contender in 2015 thanks to his efforts.
Second, Bob Rae is absolutely planning on running to be permanent leader and is being coy about it because as soon as he announces his intention he’ll have to step down and his shelf life (as well as the focus on the Party’s rebuilding efforts) diminishes substantially as part of a regular leadership campaign gimmick.
Thirdly, Bob Rae hasn’t made up his mind yet, but will eventually go for one of the first two above. Interestingly enough, in all three choices I think he can easily carve out a legacy as The Great Rebuilder who put aside his personal ambitions (either by not campaigning, or by waiting for a long time to announce) to save the Party. The fact of the matter is that as long as he’s ‘interim’ leader he’s got a huge advantage when it comes to deflecting external attacks while still getting to tinker with the operations of the party and speak authoritatively in the Commons.
As for McGuinty, I suspect part of the appeal of a Dalton leadership contest really doesn’t necessarily have to have much to do with Dalton himself. If I was asked to establish the criteria for a perfect leadership candidate for the current liberal party, I would reply:
- Longevity (read: age)
- Ability to create generational change (not an old war horse with Chretien/Martin baggage) which may mean looking strongly outside of the current, limiting caucus
To that end, I think there are some strong contenders we haven’t really considered in former MPs like Gerard Kennedy (one of my personal preferences), but also municipal politicians like Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson or Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi (can you imagine a Liberal leader in Alberta?) or Ottawa’s own Jim Watson.
WM: The difficulty of course for the Liberals is the candidate with the talents to win an election in 2019, might not have those talents in 2013. Dalton McGuinty got slammed in 1999 as 'not being up to the job'. Jack Layton was able to get the NDP an extra six seats in his first election. Stephen Harper should have won the 2004 election, and lost. All three, and many others learned on the job, and for better or worse, grew into the leader they become. I know this makes things doubly difficult for the Liberals, but maybe as part of a longer view they have to look for someone who actually ISN'T ready to be Prime Minister in 2015. I'd exclude that last part in the campaign literature though.
JVW: Agreed. The Liberals have to come to the realization that they are going to lose the next election, and recognize that that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
WM: I think we’ve dealt fairly well with the Rae and McGuinty question. How about other rumoured names – David McGuinty? Dominc Leblanc? Geoff Regan? Gerard Kennedy? Martha Hall-Findlay? Martin Cauchon? Marc Garneau?
JVW: Well, as ever, I will be throwing my lot in with the only parliamentarian who has ever been to space. If ‘having gone to space’ isn’t one of the top three qualifications to be the leader of this country, it certainly should be.
WM: I wonder about Garneau. Yes, he’s an astronaut. Yes, he’s awesome. He’s also as old as Rae and only has three years of political experience. Of the names below, Leblanc and Kennedy make the most sense on the surface to me. That being said, until we start seeing names jump into the race, we’re going off what are fairly arbitrary perceptions.
GM: No kidding, John. How often have you and I talked about how hard it would be for the Harper Conservatives to brand the First Canadian in Space? Plus he’s actually a heck of a nice guy. He’s also free of the stench of internal conflict, and could be a good uniting figure. Plus he’s from Quebec, which keeps the Liberals from having to break their alternating Anglophone/Francophone tradition. But again I’m finding myself in agreement with Will, his age and relative inexperience are liabilities at this particular juncture. I’ve already mentioned Kennedy as a personal favorite (surprisingly enough, for more than just the name).
I also kind of want Lise St. Denis to run. Not only to watch the Liberals and NDP squabble like errant children over it, but because her campaign chant could be “L-S-D!” and that’s a motif I can get behind, especially since they’ve already decided to support legalizing pot.
I also remember Scott Brison ruling out a run shortly after the devastating election result, but depending on how the party’s fortunes look over the next few months I wonder if it might give him cause to reconsider. A charming guy from the east coast with LGBT credibility and a history with the former Progressive Conservative party would arguably make him a strong contender for a national campaign to widen the political center again.
A really exciting element of the Liberals being in third place and sort of desperate, however, is that this could really kind of makes it anyone’s race. Until we have some declared intentions, it’s anybody’s guess.
WM: As I said, we don’t know a ton about the contenders not named Bob Rae. It will be interesting to see who emerges as a regular pundit in the months ahead and who starts pushing their pet issues. Some of those outside caucus – Hall Findlay, Kennedy and Cauchon may start appearing more, and could, in theory, have a bit of a leg up by talking about issues without worrying about the Leader’s office and the whip losing their minds. If I had to choose now, I’d probably look to Dominic Leblanc as the most sensible selection. Young, a lifelong political pedigree, 10+ years as an MP, and a French speaking Acadian who expresses himself quite well in both languages. A lot can happen between now and the launch of the leadership race. It’s all going to be quite interesting to watch. As an aside, a name that didn’t come up? Justin Trudeau.
That can be a discussion for another day.
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