Will Murray:
Well,
the Quebec election has come and gone, and the result is a PQ minority.
The Liberals, under Jean Charest, did better than expected, winning 50 seats
and will now sit as the Official Opposition in the Legislature. Mr.
Charest, however, will not join them, having lost his seat in the riding of
Sherbrooke. So, what will the impact of a PQ minority be on the province
of Quebec and on Canada in general? And what about the legacy of Jean Charest, a
man who 28 years to the day of his election loss was first elected as a federal
MP? And finally, for the federal parties, what will be the challenges they face
in navigating Quebec’s political waters with the PQ in power? After a long
sabbatical, Canada’s Least Watched Political Panel is back, and ready to
discuss. Greg and Will are here, while
John is sitting this one out for religious reasons.
Greg Mills:
I
think the biggest implication for both Quebec and Canada is that very little
will change: The PQ minority is going to rely on either the CAQ or the Liberals
for everything – even the other separatist party in the National Assembly,
Quebec Solidaire, doesn’t hold enough seats to give the government what it
wants.
This
means the budget, the speech from the throne, and any attempt to legislate
Marois’ “secularism charter” are likely going to have to be watered down
substantially or dropped completely. A referendum in this mandate is almost
certainly out of the question, and I won’t be surprised if the PQ government
even has a hard time keeping their tuition fee promise.
The
question in my mind is which camp will break first, separatists or students?
Just a few months ago Marois looked like she was going to get booted out of her
own party by the more hard line separatist wing – they won’t be pleased with
the minority result and the compromises yet to come won’t help. Yet to keep
power the PQ is going to have to cooperate with at least one of their rivals.
WM:
I
think the impact this has on the internal politics of the PQ is an important
one to note. Marois will likely get a
honeymoon of sorts – the PQ did win – but a minority government that will be
unable to be as aggressive as it would like to be on the language and sovereignty
questions could certainly lead to some internal strife. Charest resigning as the leader of the
Liberals likely gives the PQ some breathing room as the Liberals regroup and
find a new leader. Things are likely
going to be stable – as much as a minority government in Quebec can be – for
the next little while. While the
Liberals regroup we could very well see some abstaining from votes – which
seems to be the strategy de jour of Opposition parties in minority governments
these days.
GM:
Agreed. As a side note: it’s going to be
very interesting to see what happens to the CAQ over the next little while. A
lot of their support came from former Quebec Liberals, who may return to the
PLQ fold after a leadership change. Though, if Legault and his team manage to
run an effective ship, that migration may actually continue.
At any rate the next election (which I’m
guessing will likely be in a year or two) may be even more critical than this
one.
WM:
A
couple of issues I’d note on that front. First, what will be the impact of the
Charbonneau Commission? The inquiry into alleged corruption within the government is set to get underway this fall. How damning will it be, and
will there be political fallout? It will
be interesting to see how badly the Liberals are wounded by this now that
they’re in Opposition. I can’t remember the last time a previous
government, now sitting in Opposition, wound up getting rapped on the knuckles by an inquiry and had it
hurt them in the following election.
The
other thing I’ll note, it’s obvious the provincial Liberal machine is still a
strong force. It brought a party many thought would finish 3rd
within four seats of forming the government. It’s a powerful machine and it
will be interesting to see whether anyone in the federal Liberal leadership
race can connect with it and make inroads in the province. Obviously
there’s no direct relationship between the federal and provincial Liberals, but
I do think that the federal Liberals are in better shape than they could have
been after this election. Perception wise, the Liberal brand getting
pushed to third by an upstart party wouldn’t have been a great way to kick off a
leadership campaign.
GM:
Yes,
I think it’s clear to say that rumors of the death of the PLQ have been greatly
exaggerated. It’s telling that even in many of the parts of Montreal where, due
to the student strikes and police response, some thought the Liberals would be
most severely punished, they still won a majority (in some cases 60+%, which I
find astounding for a ‘defeated’ party) of the popular vote in many ridings and
kept a fairly firm grip on the Island.
I’m
not sure how well all of that translates into the federal level, since the
provincial Liberals aren’t directly tied to the federal ones (and likely
overlap slightly with CPC support in some cases), but it certainly tells us
that the brand itself still has a heartbeat. We’ll have to see how the federal
New Democrats handle this result. They’re a mildly-federalist party which
happens to share a lot of PQ support, and I wonder if and how Mulcair will be
able to balance the need to hold onto largely PQ or QS supporters inside the
province with the requirement that the NDP expand in provinces that have very
non PQ-iste sympathies. And the Conservatives must be a little relieved, with
so few Quebec MPs in their caucus they would have a hard time being credible in
any referendum fight, and a PQ minority where centre-right federalists hold the
balance of power should put their minds at relative ease.
The
Charbonneau Commission won’t be pleasant, but I expect it will likely leave few
Quebec politicians of any stripe untouched. Its effects specifically on the PLQ may be
mitigated as well, depending on who the next leader is and how well the party
does at cleaning house. That being said, we’ll have to wait and see how it all
plays out.
WM:
The fallout
at the federal level will be very interesting to watch. Quebec, as always, will
be a critical battleground in the 2016 election campaign, but it would likely
be a mistake for anyone to try to craft electoral strategy around the results
of this week’s provincial election. I’m
assuming there’s likely to be another provincial election in Quebec before we
see the next federal election, so THAT election may prove to be more important
than this one.
The
challenge facing Mulcair will be exactly as you describe it. Can he find a middle ground between holding
onto his Quebec base, and expanding elsewhere in the country? Oddly enough, the outcome of the federal
Liberal leadership race may play a role here as well. I think the NDP can probably thread the
needle of appealing to Quebec, and not being seen as beholden to them in the
rest of Canada if they are in an us versus them campaign against the
Conservatives. The NDP will try to paint
itself as the government in waiting and the defecto alternative. That can certainly work
if the anger at the Tories grows in the years ahead, but the POTENTIAL challenge
will be if the Liberals choose a leader committed to a strong central
government offering no special status to Quebec.
If the
Liberals are able to speak to that issue in English Canada I think it will have
resonance, and could potentially put the NDP in a corner.
It would
very interesting to see how the NDP would approach a campaign against the
Liberals if the new leader is Justin Trudeau - an MP from Quebec in favour of a
strong, central government? I’m not necessarily a proponent of young Justin,
but the hypothetical is interesting to think about, and perhaps fodder for next
week when we discuss the Liberal leadership again.
WM:
Finally, despite my snark over the last several weeks, I
feel Jean Charest should be congratulated. He's had a pretty remarkable
career. Elected as an MP for the first time in the 1984 federal election,
he would lose his seat in 2012, 28 years to the day of that first win. In
that time there have been a lot of highs and a lot of lows.
He served in
Mulroney's Cabinet, won a majority government in Quebec in 2003 and 2008, and
helped win the referendum for the No side in 1995.
He was able to get up off the mat after some pretty
devastating losses as well. He lost the leadership race of 1993 to Kim
Campbell (how the country would have been changed by a Charest win is a whole
other discussion), he was one of only 2 MPs elected as PCs in 1993, and he
would lose the 1998 provincial election after setting off to Quebec to be the
federalist saviour.
Obviously, the jury is still out on his time as Premier of
Quebec, and there are some scandals that look like they will stick with that
government for some time. Still, 28 years of public service is something
that should be applauded.
